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The Electronics Supply Chain Is (Still) a Hot Mess

The Electronics Supply Chain Is (Still) a Hot Mess

By Bolaji Ojo

What’s at stake?

The electronics industry’s cycles cannot be controlled but they don’t also have to be as devastating as they have been in the past or even now. The industry is failing the credibility test by the unbridled response to upcycles and downcycles, which often lay the foundation for the future occurrence of problems being corrected. For an industry that makes precision equipment for others, this is a distinct black eye.

The electronics supply chain is in shambles. Again.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) projects IC revenues will increase 13 percent this year, reversing the drop from 2023. Look closely, though, and the market reality is disheartening and perplexing.

The story here is nuanced. Supply chain demons, unchained, lurk in the wings. Rather than grapple with its anomalies – top of which is demand-supply disequilibrium – industry executives are looking beyond the recent shortages and sales slowdown to clamber atop one another in a rush to embrace artificial intelligence, the current growth driver.

But what about the forecast inaccuracies, unrealistic orders, capacity utilization challenges, mismatched capex budgets vs. “real” production need that have bedeviled the electronics market for decades? These issues have not disappeared, and no amount of AI-fueled recovery will keep them from wreaking havoc on the industry within another short period of time.

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How Could Software-Defined Vehicles Go Wrong?

How Could Software-Defined Vehicles Go Wrong?

By Junko Yoshida

What’s at stake:
The first order of business
in discussing Software-Defined Vehicle is to define it, clearly. What is it? More important, what do carmakers plan to do with SDVs? Too many marketers are abusing the terminology to push their own self-serving agenda.

General Motors last week announced resumption of sales of its Chevrolet Blazer EV, whose software quality issues forced suspension of deliveries in December.

When a carmaker like GM says its fixes are now delivered by software updates, the message to the general public is “Don’t worry. This is no big deal.”

However, GM’s Blazer EV stop-sale was a huge deal.

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Two Paths Diverged: Tale of High-NA EUV Lithography

Tale of High-NA EUV Lithography: Two Paths Diverged

By Ron Wilson

What’s at stake:
The leading edge of the semiconductor industry is struggling mightily to reach what they have named the Angstrom era. The phrase refers to an arbitrary point, somewhere around the so-called 3 nm process node, where it becomes fashionable to name technology nodes in Angstroms rather than in nanometers — hence, not 1.5 nm but 15 Angstroms. It is at about this point that the requirements for ever more detailed patterns on silicon wafers exceed the capabilities of today’s EUV lithography systems and procedures.

It is possible with great care nowadays to print patterns on the surface of a wafer in which the lines are about 13 nm apart — just fine enough for today’s so-called 5 nm processes. These patterns are projected onto a layer of radiation-sensitive material — a photoresist layer, so-called for mostly historical reasons. The pattern is then developed, and transferred through rather tortuous etching and cleaning processes to temporary layers of material that lie just beneath the resist. These layers, in turn, form a hard barrier through which material can be etched away, or added to the surface of the wafer to form the transistors and wires that make up the IC.

For the 3 nm generation, the most critical layers — such as those that make electrical connections to the transistors or that make up the first levels of metal interconnect — will require resolution just slightly finer than 13 nm in order to make connections to the most closely packed transistors. That is beyond the capabilities of today’s EUV systems with today’s procedures.

Read More »Tale of High-NA EUV Lithography: Two Paths Diverged

Why Fintech Companies Are Closing Shop in Nigeria

By Fred Ohwahwa

What’s at stake:

Tech investors who doled out what is beginning to look like ‘easy money’ to start-ups in Africa’s leading economy are discovering the enterprises need more than funds. Now that some of the companies have ended belly up, investors are taking stock and trying to figure out how much handholding future investments will need.

Amid the global challenging economic environment, many start up tech companies in Nigeria folded up in 2023. At the last count, eight of such companies went under.

In a country with astronomically high unemployment rate – estimated at 33 percent by some projections – this is a significant development considering the country’s leading position in fintech across Africa.

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China lithium-ion battery manufacrturing

China’s EV Battery Lead Appears Unassailable

By George Leopold

What’s at stake:
If any nation can ride out a projected slump in EV demand, it’s China and its EV powerhouses, battery maker CATL and car maker BYD.

Demand for still-pricey battery EVs is plateauing, at least outside the booming Chinese market, but some industry analysts predict a rebound is possible over the next 18 months when a second wave of adoption gathers steam across Asia, Europe and the U.S.

An upturn in battery EV adoption is bound to solidify China’s stranglehold on the global EV battery and materials supply web. The sector is dominated by China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., which currently controls 37 percent of the global battery market. Better known as CATL, the industry leader along with Chinese EV juggernaut BYD provide lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries for all Tesla EVs made in China.

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1.6T Ethernet IP Poses Options for Hyperscalers

By Junko Yoshida

What’s at stake:
On the 25th year anniversary of its design IP business, Synopsys has a new 1.6 T Ethernet IP with differentiated features. The EDA company could potentially court big guns in the datacenter market. But can it compete with merchant semiconductor companies?

Synopsys has rolled out what it calls “the industry’s first complete 1.6T Ethernet IP solutions” – consisting of 224G Ethernet PHY IP, multi-channel/multi-rate Ethernet controllers supporting up to 1.6T and its verification IP.

Synopsys is poised to move up the food chain from chips to system designs, by working directly with prominent system companies, such as hyperscalers, interested in designing custom silicon tailored to their own needs.

Meanwhile, leading networking semiconductor suppliers such as Marvell and Broadcom, who have launched similar 1.6T Ethernet chips, also claim they are already aligned with hyperscalers.

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Infineon Builds Fortress SiC: Foresight or Overreach?

Infineon Builds Fortress SiC: Foresight or Overreach?

By Bolaji Ojo

What’s at stake?

Infineon Technologies is fast becoming a silicon carbide powerhouse, fortified by sourcing alliances and spendings on fabs running into billions of dollars in addition to sales deals with OEM customers. As its capital outlay grows, however, the question arises: is Infineon doing too much in a market that is still struggling to find its feet? Or are these prescient moves for which the company’s management deserve credit?

Infineon Technologies AG on Wednesday unexpectedly said it was reorganizing its global sales organization. Infineon, said CMO Andreas Urschitz, wants to position itself “for ambitious growth by further strengthening and streamlining its sales organization.”

The terse, 3-paragraph statement announcing the decision is atypical of Infineon, hinting that more changes may be afoot at Europe’s leading semiconductor vendor.

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Japan's Bet on Jim Keller: Why?

Japan Bets on Jim Keller: Why?

By Junko Yoshida

What’s at stake:
Japan’s ability to secure the chip supply and protect national security would require it to build leading-edge semiconductor fabs and AI technologies. Japan is giving Tenstorrent, a Canadian startup, the job of leading its national AI/RISC-V/chiplet project.

Japan’s chipmaking challenge is colossal. It will take herculean effort and staggering investment to bring up a 2-nm process technology at Rapidus, its startup foundry, by 2027.

Given the many national tech projects that have failed under the guidance of the Japanese government, recent media headlines such as “Japan’s comeback in semiconductor manufacturing” make some industry observers in Japan cringe.

Nonetheless, as the Ojo-Yoshida Report learned recently from semiconductor manufacturing equipment vendors and EDA suppliers, contracts are getting signed. Hardware and software tools are heading to Sapporo, where Rapidus is building a fab.

Read More »Japan Bets on Jim Keller: Why?