By Peter Clarke
Don’t trust the headline-grabbing numbers.
We’ve had a spate of semiconductor factory announcements in recent days from the U.S. semiconductor leaders Intel and Micron. They mentioned multibillion-dollar sums of money. Those who made timely appearances in such announcement were leaders of governments despite their busy agendas.
Read More »Chips, Politics, High Numbers
By David Benjamin
From the first time I heard it, I cringed at the utterance of the word “interface.” It’s a relatively new term, coined to describe contact via an electronic device. It’s not just ugly. It’s an oxymoron. The machines that enable interfaces are a means to avoid the indignity of showing one’s face.
Read More »Interfacing in a Faceless Era
Enough with the handwringing, it’s time to shut down public access to AI
By David Benjamin
“Sgt. Schulz: How do you expect to win the war with an army of clowns?
“Lt. Dunbar: We sort of hope you’d laugh yourselves to death.”
—Sig Ruman and Don Taylor in Stalag 17
I can’t help but sympathize with the writers’ strike in Hollywood. The news is that the script writers and screenplay authors in the movie biz, as well as those who write copy and compose jingles for commercials, are spooked about the adoption — by the film, television and streaming industries — of “generative artificial intelligence (AI),” the clever technology that powers ChatGPT and its brethren.
AI apps that mimic human speech and writing and devise deceptively realistic photos and video are, by their nature and function, an affront to those of us who have put in years of miserably remunerative labor over notebooks and keyboards as we evolve into good writers.
On the other hand, we’re talking Hollywood, where the vast bulk of the writing, by order of the powers that be, is only sporadically — often accidentally — “good,” and might not even be anthropomorphically “generative.” How many sincere and gifted “content providers” are allowed, in the risk-averse, copycat culture of film and TV production, to be actually and palpably inventive?
Read More »Regressive AI
Returning to the moon will be risky. NASA must acknowledge those risks and work tirelessly to reduce them.
By Bolaji Ojo
What’s at stake:
Intel Foundry Services faces a bleak future if the company continues to hang on tightly to the “ownership” strings. Many of the world’s biggest fabless chipmakers will remain on the sidelines if they see Intel as a competitor, which it is. While Intel does not want to spin off its foundry business it should consider deploying an alternate strategy to pull in hesitant potential customers.
Nvidia Corp. is a major force in the artificial intelligence (AI) market. Rival Intel Corp. also wants to “democratize the incredible power of AI” and supply the market with “a full suite of silicon and software to drive AI,” according to CEO Pat Gelsinger. Intel, the world’s No. 1 microprocessor vendor, would also like to have Nvidia as a customer of Intel Foundry Services (IFS), its contract wafer manufacturing division upon which Gelsinger has pinned the company’s future.
Somebody needs a reality check.
Read More »Intel ‘Internal’ vs. Pure-Play Foundry Quandary Deepens
By Bolaji Ojo
What’s at stake:
Getting an accurate reading of the direction of the electronics market has always been problematic. Yet, the decisions executives take that end up massively impacting employees, shareholders and customers depend so much on a good understanding and acceptance of the market fundamentals. What chipmakers especially must do to determine the direction of the current cycle is clear. Will they go instead with the typical knee-jerk actions, though?
Inaccurate forecasts are the bane of the chip market.
Malcolm Penn, CEO and founder of Future Horizons Ltd., a UK-based semiconductor research and consulting firm, comes closest to being the industry’s one true oracle. Penn may not be the only one to generally get chip sales forecasts mostly correct annually. But he stands out.
Read More »Will this Semiconductor Cycle Be Deep or Shallow?
By Peter Clarke
What’s at stake:
China is the world’s No. 1 investor in semiconductor startups. It is locked in a desperate struggle to catch up with the West and avoid the suffocating effects of American-led technology sanctions. Even without US opposition, though, China’s investments may not yield the expected returns.
For many years China has been directly and indirectly funding domestic semiconductor startup activities.
The rest of the world may have been aware that something was going on, via anecdotal details and various slices of investment data. But it is unlikely that many people will have seen the big picture.
Read More »Charting China’s Dominance of Global Chip Startup Activity
By Bolaji Ojo
What’s at stake:
The capital expenditure plans announced by chipmakers just a couple of years back were huge – in dollar value, number of plants and scale – but they were also unrealistic. Why are semiconductor industry executives that should know better this prone to shooting themselves in the foot?
Once again, the latest semiconductor industry capital expenditure fever has broken. Forecasts for double-digit year-over-year capex increases are being revised downwards, steering the industry towards more believable numbers.
Read More »Chip Leaders Are Responsible for Capex Disarray
By Peter Clarke
What’s at stake:
Rapidus Corp. is Japan’s great hope for a reentry into semiconductor manufacturing at 2nm. Such an ambitious plan is to be commended. But this must be also recognized as a high-risk project.
