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War Over Taiwan Is Doubtful, and Unaffordable by China or Anyone

War Over Taiwan Is Doubtful, and Unaffordable by China or Anyone

By Bolaji Ojo

What’s at stake:
Concerns about war over Taiwan have grown since Xi Jinping became president, insisting that China would reunite the island with the mainland – by force, if necessary. The stability of the global supply chain is at stake, but in the end a peaceful resolution is more likely. Too much is at stake for the opponents, including the US and its Western allies. Can the supply chain breathe easier?

Taiwan’s presidential and national legislative elections will take place Jan. 13. At stake is the independence, economy and political future of the island – and for many in the electronics industry, the future of its role in the semiconductor market and in the technology value chain.

Read More »War Over Taiwan Is Doubtful, and Unaffordable by China or Anyone
Generative AI at CES: Good, Bad and Ugly

Generative AI at CES: Good, Bad and Ugly

By Junko Yoshida

What’s at stake:
The milling throng at CES this year is bombarded with generative AI marketing pitches. There are glowing promises galore, but the industry continues to cast about for credible applications spun from ChatGPT’s halo effect.

This year’s CES will be “all about generative AI and AI PCs,” said Justin Walker, Nvidia’s senior director of desktop GPUs during last week’s Nvidia’s pre-CES briefing.

He was, of course, spot on. Ahead of the show, most tech companies decided to AI-frame their CES announcements. Many touted their AI savvy by mentioning generative AI in press briefings and demonstrations, and in their booths.

Clearly, AI poses many shades and applications, from AI in PC and AI in cars to AI in robots. Vehicle AI alone encompasses myriad AI applications. It goes into digital cockpits, into ADAS (sensing and monitoring) and into self-driving vehicles (predictions and decision making)

Among all the AI presentations, Volkswagen’s demo won this year’s CES booby prize. 

Read More »Generative AI at CES: Good, Bad and Ugly

Intel: It’s the Whole Car, Not Teraflops

By Junko Yoshida

What’s at stake:
After shedding Mobileye, Intel has searched its soul to intuit how it can make a difference in a congested automotive chip market. Rather than shoving more teraflops into a car’s central compute technology, Intel believes its new mission is addressing unanswered questions with which carmakers are grappling — safer, software-defined vehicle architecture, much more energy efficient EVs and the dawn of the chiplet. With no quick fixes possible, is Intel ready to play the long game?

Twenty-five years ago, when Microsoft at CES pitched a plan to wedge its operating system and PC technology into the living room, TV set manufacturers wept crocodile tears for consumers. “The last thing we want,” CE companies said, is “the blue screen of death on their living room TVs.”

Fast forward to 2024. Intel Corp. slouches toward CES, unveiling its all-out plans for the automotive market. Will this moment in history become yet another example of the PC industry horning in on somebody else’s business?

Not necessarily.

Read More »Intel: It’s the Whole Car, Not Teraflops
TSMC’s Next Fab: The Case for India

TSMC’s Next Fab: The Case for India

By Bolaji Ojo

What’s at stake?
No other company plays as critical a role in chip production as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. and none is as sought after today by governments and customers seeking economic advantages and supply stability. For many reasons, India should be at the top of TSMC’s list for new fab locations.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd. (TSMC) prides itself on basing its capital expenditure decisions on anticipated or verifiable customer needs. Geopolitics and supply security have taken a hammer to that policy.

This explains why TSMC is today adding fabs in Germany, Japan and US. It is also why India, which had for long expressed a desire for local chip plants, is now likely to get its wish. Whether TSMC will be the first player to step into India’s apparent void remains to be seen, however.

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Chip World ‘24: Prospects to Embrace, Details to Sweat

Chip World ‘24: Prospects to Embrace, Details to Sweat

By Junko Yoshida

What’s at stake?
The headlines of 2023 have heralded the march of generative AI, geopolitical tussles over trade and technology and a bubble of government funding to private companies for local chip production. As a result, the semiconductor industry has more political power, economic force and self-importance than ever before. The question in 2024 is how responsibly and effectively chip suppliers will end up flexing all this muscle.

Unquestionably, the chip industry has become a star on the political and economic stages, as the Wall Street Journal aptly noted.  The trend will continue in 2024, potentially altering the whos, hows and whats of the semiconductor landscape.

Yole Group CEO
Jean-Christophe Eloy

While technological progress has created a fiercely competitive market among leading chip suppliers, 2023 also solidified the semiconductor market around single winners – with no comparable rivals – in the critical areas of lithography (ASML) and foundries (TSMC). That gap between champions and also-rans could eventually recoil on the chip sector, with the industry’s strength limited by the weakest link in the supply chain.

The Ojo-Yoshida Report sat down with Jean-Christophe Eloy, president and CEO of Yole Group (Lyon, France), to hear his assessment of 2023. He told us what stood out (events, companies, technology and business/market trends), what concerns him most (boobytraps awaiting the chip industry), and big shifts he sees in China’s semiconductor plans (and their impact on the West).  

Read More »Chip World ‘24: Prospects to Embrace, Details to Sweat